Byron @ Goat Riders: These are my latest articles on Goat Riders • 9 May '08 - The Cubs are super-cold right now... • 3 May '08 - What if they announced real life? • 2 May '08 - Back-Channel Relations: Viva El Birdos • 29 Apr '08 - Dusty huh? The quote machine moves to Cincy • 28 Apr '08 - Back-Channel Relations: Al's Ramblings

Caveat Emptor: Illinois Taxpayers

Friday, May 9, 2008

State, ISFA, Governor, Sam Zell trying one last time to steal from taxpayers.

There's been a lot of news on the Cubs sale front of late. The rumblings from many sources is that the 'books' will be sent out to the six prospective ownership groups in a week or two.

In what appears to be a last minute attempt to revive the ISFA deal, Jim Thompson (whom I'm losing respect for daily) is now promising that there will be no name change if the state buys Wrigley.

This raises two questions. Where's the revenue shortfall going to come from? (If the agency had been planning to sell naming rights, it was probably banking on some revenue.) Well, lets think about the ISFA. It's assets/income opportunities if it purchased the park would come from rent the club pays, concessions, other 'inside the ballpark' revenues, and tax dollars. Now, if there's any drop in 'inside the ballpark' revenues to the new owners, the club is devalued... so that doesn't make a lot of sense for Sam Zell. But, if the new revenues come from the taxpayers, well then everyone can eat the taxpayers' pie and so the new owners and the Tribune can have an extra helping of profit.

Similarly, Al Yellon recently had a sit down with Crane Kenney, the Cubs' interim-President. Here's what Crane had to say about taxpayer dollars being used by the ISFA.

All right, so I think we’ve already talked about the sources of funding for this transaction will come exclusively from inside this building. So what we would do is we would take what we call the transactional taxes that are paid here, sales taxes that are paid in the building on food, drink, merchandise, amusement taxes that are paid on ticket sales, use taxes, etc. Those taxes that are right now being paid inside the building for money being spent here, we would use a baseline year of 2007 and then all the incremental taxes that otherwise would have been paid into the general coffers above that baseline year would now go to support a bond issue which would renovate the stadium over 30 years.

So let me get this straight. What if I wanted to purchase Wrigley Field. Would the state really allow me to set a baseline year of tax payments and not increase those taxes for the next 30 years?

Let's do a little math here. I checked Team Marketing Report's Fan Cost Index, which they've released every year since 1991. In '91, the average Cubs ticket price was $10.10, and the FCI was $83.40 or $20.85 per person. (FCI is based on a family of four attending a game.)

For 2008, the Cubs average ticket price, according to TMR, is $42.49 and the FCI is $251.96 or $62.99 per person.

Assuming the tax rates didn't change from 1991 to 2008 (they did, but they went up), the tax authorities would have expected 12% of the ticket revenue (entertainment tax) and 10.5% (sales tax) of the rest. In other words, a fair estimate of per fan tax revenue in 1991 was (.12 x 10.10 + .105 x 10.75 =) $2.34 per person. The same estimate using the 2008 levels is (.12 x 42.49 + .105 x 20.50 =) $7.25. (Note that the above paragraph assumes the average fan spends at the FCI amount, but the FCI amount is not developed using average fan expenditures per game.

The final factor I'll look at is attendance. In 1991, attendance was 2,314,250. Let's assume 2008 attendance will be at the same level as 2007, or 3,252,462. Using our previous assumptions about tax per fan per game, that brings 1991 tax revenues to approximately $5.4 million and 2008 tax revenues to $23.6 million.

In other words, if the ISFA had purchased the stadium in 1991 using the same tax threshold they are suggesting now, the city/county/state authorities would receive $5.4 million of taxes from the Cubs this year and $18.2 million would be redirected to paying off bonds so the state could own Wrigley Field. That's $18.2 million that doesn't go to fix pot holes, hire police and firefighters, or replace broken streetlights in drug-infested neighborhoods.

If all of that seems like too many ifs, too many assumptions, let's run the numbers if the deal closes before the end of the season and they adopt 2007 as the baseline.

2007 FCI: 219.21 or $54.80 per person. Average ticket cost was $34.30. So tax revenues would be .12 x 34.30 + .105 x 20.50 = 6.27 per person. We assumed no change in attendance, so the difference is $7.25 - $6.27 = $0.98 per person x 3,252,462 = $3.2 million.

So just the incremental tax revenue from 2007 to 2008 is $3.2 million... and that assumption is on the low side because it doesn't factor in the hike in tax rates that occurred in 2008. (Thanks Todd Stroger Jr. and the CTA).

Thus, in it's first year, given the conditions Crane Kenney outlined for Al, the taxpayers would be subsidizing $3.2 million dollars of the Wrigley Field purchase price... and it would grow from there. I'd say write your governor, but Blagojevich is already a fan of corruption... so write your state representative, write your alderman, write your mayor. There's already enough corruption in Chicago politics. Illinois taxpayers don't need to subsidize Sam Zell.

Posted by Byron at 11:23 AM | Comments (0)

Official Sponsor of The Cubdom
	Play at America's #1 sportsbook - BetUS.com. BetUS offers the most up-to-date baseball betting odds and lines and MLB betting options. Choose BetUS.com today and start betting on your favorite team to win BIG!

---

Cubs reach agreement with Tom Gramatis, no obstructions planned

Sunday, May 4, 2008

Fran Spielman reports in the Sun-Times that the Cubs have reached an agreement with Tom Gramatis, the owner of the Ivy League Baseball Club (3637 N. Sheffield Ave), the Sheffield Baseball Club (3619 N. Sheffield Ave), and the Wrigley Field Rooftop Club (3617 N. Sheffield Ave).

The new agreement seems to be fair. It exempts the Ivy League Baseball Club from the 17% revenue sharing agreement the other rooftops have in favor of a flat fee. This is because the Ivy League Baseball Club has a lower roof than the surrounding rooftops, so it's view was obstructed by the 2006 bleacher expansion. In return for the concession on the Ivy League club, Gramatis agreed to submit his new rooftops to the standard revenue sharing program.

Here's a picture I took last month (below). You can clearly see 3639 Wrigley Rooftop and the Ivy League Baseball Club are under construction. 3639 Wrigley Rooftop has a new hulking bleacher on top, but I'm not sure what the plan is to improve the view from the Ivy League Club.

The other interesting nugget in the article is an estimate that the total revenues of all the rooftops are around $18 million, making the Cubs' take $3 million.

For more information on the Cubs Rooftops, check out the Wrigley Field Rooftop Directory.

Posted by Byron at 2:25 PM | Comments (2)

TribCo Revenue Grab: Ryne Sandberg to manage at Wrigley

Deep in the Bowels of the Tribune Company, Sam Zell and a handful of Tribune Company executives are seated around a conference room table.

Sam Zell: We took out too much debt to buy this blasted company. Everybody needs to come up with a way to make more money, pronto! Crane, Crane Kenney, how can the Cubs make more money?

Crane Kenney: Well, we could sell naming rights to Wrigley Field.

Zell: Out of the Box you numbskull!

Kenney: Er... we could sell the stadium to the state. Just make a little contribution to the G-Rod campaign and maybe the state will pay more for the decrepit park than any other suitor.

Zell: I like where you're going with this, Crane... but it's not good enough or quick enough!

Kenney: Well, our best assets are Wrigley Field, followed by our flagpole legends (Ronny, Billy, Ernie, and Ryne). Shazaam! Let's have a legends day at Wrigley!

Zell: Come on Crane, you're almost there... keep squeezin' that noggin' of yours. We already have a legends day virtually every single year. We already sell out every game, how could we possibly squeeze out more revenue?

Kenney: An orgasmic look of bliss suddenly seizes him. We could have a legends game! Get all the guys out to play on the new turf. That'd sell like hot cakes.

Zell: Scratches his beard in deep thought What would happen if Ernie broke his hip... that could be a PR disaster. No, we should keep the baseball playing to young folk.

Kenney: Wait... I'm getting an idea here... We've got Ryne Sandberg managing in Peoria, he'd sell tickets! Let's just have the Chiefs play at Wrigley.

Zell: That's what I'm talking about, Crane.

Posted by Byron at 1:22 AM | Comments (0)

All Star Voting - My Favorite Player Edition

Thursday, May 1, 2008

Way back in the day, I used to publish my all-star votes periodically as a way to discuss the rest of the league. Now that all-star voting is available again this year, I think I'll do so again.

Position	American League	National League
First Base	Morneau, J., MIN	Lee, D., CHC
Second Base	Grudzielanek, M., KC	Utley, C., PHI
Third Base	Rodriguez, A., NYY	Ramirez, A., CHC
Shortstop	Jeter, D., NYY	Rollins, J., PHI
Catcher	Rodriguez, I., DET	Soto, G., CHC
Outfielder	Guerrero, V., LAA	Bay, J., PIT
Outfielder	Sizemore, G., CLE	Fukudome, K., CHC
Outfielder	Suzuki, I., SEA	Griffey Jr., K., CIN
Designated Hitter	Ortiz, D., BOS	Our pitchers hit

For those stats inclined folks, please don't freak out. I haven't looked at anything to make my decisions. No, mostly these were influenced by watching baseball tonight and the sports page.

Notes
• Derrek Lee may not get many votes over Albert Pujols, but Derrek is awesome and Albert's a Cardinal.
• Chase Utley reminds me of Ryne Sandberg. How about a Ryan Theriot for Chase Utley deal. Darn, I wish Ed Wade was still in Philly.
• Alex Rodriguez is the best player in baseball, and one of the greatest ever. David Wright probably ought to get the vote on the NL side, but he wears the wrong uniform, so Aramis Ramirez wins my vote.
• I've always loved Pudge Rodriguez, even if he destroyed the Cubs in 2003, even if he might have done something bad that rhymes with airtroids. And of course, I had to vote for Geovany Soto. He had six RBI yesterday!
• Ken Griffey Jr. deserves way more respect and fanfare than he gets. He's played clean throughout the steroid era, and he's on the doorstep of 600 homeruns. Ruth, Aaron, Mays, Griffey.
• Ichiro! is still one of the most exciting players in all of MLB. His countryman Kozuke Fooky isn't too far behind.
• It's really not fair that the All-Star game determines World Series home field advantage. The All-Star game is heavily tilted to the American League because of the undue influence of hitting in the All-Star game (Pitchers never hit), yet the AL teams all have an extra hitter. This is played out in the Baseball lines at Bodog. If I didn't like Big Papi so much, I would have abstained from voting for the DH.
• I voted for only four Cubs. I wasn't too bad, was I?

And Finally, I updated the Chicago Cubs Owner Review page to include the latest on Sam Zell, the Illinois Sports Facilities Administration, and the Cubs sale process.

Posted by Byron at 9:48 PM

Wrigley Field - Aisle 239

Thursday, April 24, 2008

I went to the Cubs game on Monday night and sat in a section I hadn't sat in before: Aisle 239. The seats were fantastic for a number of reasons. Here's a photograph of the view from Aisle 239.

Pros
• Great views of everything, the game, people in the stands, people on the Cubs Rooftops
• Can see everything in the stadium, except about five foot zone from the rightfield foul wall
• Conveniently located by rightfield entrance, which is close to the El stop, Harry Caray's statue, Harry Caray's bar, the Sports Corner, and Bacci's Pizzeria.
• Convenient to non-crowded bathrooms. Go down the stair well by the Sheffield lounge and there is a set of restrooms that are significantly less busy than most of the Wrigley Field restrooms.

Cons
• Aisle 239 is far down the right field line. The angles are long, so a tall person in front of you could obstruct a large swath of the field. (However, the vertical staging of the seats is pretty good in that section.
• The seat angle (when facing straight forward) is more directed toward third base than home plate. I had a bit of a sore neck from sitting at an angle and then twisting to see the scoreboard.

So there you have it, a review of Aisle 239... oh and the ticket price? $24 for an April weeknight game. Not bad at all, and even better since I was given my ticket, so I can start saving up for my World Series tickets as the Cubs' World Series odds skyrocket.

Posted by Byron at 9:48 PM

A strategy for cheap Cubs tickets

Wednesday, April 16, 2008

I went to the Cubs game last night and used one of my favorite strategies to score cheap Cubs tickets. Here's how it works.

First, this strategy doesn't always work, but it's more reliable than your usual MLB Odds. Anyhow, the best games for this strategy are night games and mid-week day games... or any time when the park is 90% full. (This typically equates to nights when announced attendance is 38,000 to 39,000.)

Basically the strategy is to watch an inning or two at a local establishment, and then venture over to one of the ticket brokers. Offer them a low-ball price, say $10, and ask them what they'll give you. Generally, they'll sell you a decent upper deck seat for $10 (see picture below. These were my seats last night.) If they won't, keep on walking and ask the next guy standing out on a stoop with a fist-full of tickets.

You see, the brokers never actually go to the games, they just sell tickets. If the game ends and they're still holding onto a ticket, they lost money. So, if you come strolling by after all the actual customers have ponied up for the games, and offer $10, they have no reason not to give you a ticket. They can either have $10 or a nicely printed ticket worth $0. And, if you're a decent negotiator, then you might offer up $20 and get a good lower level seat.

Now, the odds are: this strategy will not work on Saturdays, Friday day games, or any of the big draw games (like Cubs vs. Sox or Cubs vs. Cardinals.) It doesn't work then because there are just too many people looking for tickets and there won't be any left in the second inning.

Posted by Byron at 11:14 AM

MORE "JUST SAYIN..."